So-So Turnout Expected for VA's Super Tuesday

 
As Virginia heads into Super Tuesday, the mood is decidedly flat, likely due to the ballot offering only two choices to voters: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul.

Candidates Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich did not return enough signatures by the filing deadline. Virginia is one of 10 states with primaries or caucuses on Tuesday.

"I expect a poor turnout. With no real competition, many voters will conclude, 'Why bother?' " said Mark J.Rozell, professor of Public Policy at George Mason University in Fairfax.

Mark Kelly, former chairman of the Arlington County Republican Party, estimates Arlington's turnout to be between 5,000 and 6,000 on Super Tuesday.

"Four years ago, it was 9,500 [voters] roughly…in Arlington in the Republican presidential primary," said Mark Kelly, former chairman of the Arlington County Republican Party. "Of course, the Obama-Clinton primary was going on the same day. There was more attention drawn to it as well. I'm guessing lower (this year), just because it doesn't seem like they (the candidates) are really contesting this."

"I don't think that's going to point to the lack of enthusiasm of Republicans for November," Kelly noted. "It's more of a reflection just of the… lack of overall attention that seems to be paid here. I'd have toassume that turnout is going to be lower."

Anthony Bedell, chairman of the Fairfax County Republicans, agreed.

"Turnout will be very low," he predicted.

Potential VP McDonnell Encourages Participation

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) , who has endorsed frontrunner Mitt Romney and campaigned with him in South Carolina and Florida, asked that voters turn out on Tuesday.

"We have two candidates — Ron Paul and our endorsed candidate Gov. Mitt Romney — and while it [the Virginia primary] is one of 10 races that are being held across the country, we obviously think Virginia is acritically important state," McDonnell said in a conference call with reporters on Monday.

"It's said to be a swing state," he said. "It was a state that three, four years ago went for Obama and seveny ears ago went for President Bush, so it certainly has the ability for both Democrats and Republicans to win. That's why most people think Virginia will be a very important state in November. We're asking our Republican activists and Independents who want to vote in the Republican primary, to go out and vote."

Is McDonnell, who is oft-discussed as a potential running mate with Romney, serving up Virginia's delegates to Romney on a silver platter?

University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato, in his "Crystal Ball" report, noted Virginia's leaders are Romney supporters and said that Romney will "sweep or nearly sweep "the state and is "guaranteed Virginia" and its 46 delegates up for grabs.

Because President George W. Bush (R) went unchallenged in 2004, the last comparable GOP primary race was 2000, when Vice President Al Gore was unchalleneged for the Democrats. There were five Republican candidates battling for the GOP nomination.

That year, Virginia saw a 17.28 percent turnout in the Republican Primary. 

 In Fairfax County in 2000, of the 544,157 registered voters, 126,234 turned out to vote in the GOP presidential primary, a 23.2 percent turnout, said Fairfax County Elections Chief Cameron Quinn.

In 2008, when there was both a Democratic and Republican primary, turnout was about 11 percent statewide, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections.

Patch editors Nicole Trifone and Jason Spencer contributed to this report.